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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 58

New England Patriots 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(5:47) 17-B.Baringer punts 47 yards to CIN 11, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-C.Jones to CIN 10 for -1 yards (41-B.Schooler).

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.14 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 58, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP