4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 33

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – New England Patriots 16

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 2-E.McPherson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.16 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model