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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2024-09-08 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

JAX
39.7%
MIA
60.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA defense: -0.039 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • JAX offense: +0.004 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 21
–
MIA 23
Projected margin: MIA by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

JAX

Daniel Thomas S Questionable Achilles

MIA

Malik Washington WR Out Quadricep
Jalen Ramsey CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 17
–
MIA 20

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:34 TD JAX (4:34) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – MIA 0
  • Q2 06:28 TD JAX (6:28) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 7-B.Thomas for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – MIA 0
  • Q2 01:09 TD MIA (1:09) 28-D.Achane up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 14 – MIA 6
  • Q2 00:03 FG JAX (:03) 39-C.Little 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 17 – MIA 7
  • Q3 02:19 TD MIA (2:19) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 17 – MIA 13
  • Q4 04:26 FG MIA (4:26) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. JAX 17 – MIA 17
  • Q4 00:04 FG MIA (:04) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. JAX 17 – MIA 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 8 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 48%

    (11:41) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short middle to 0-B.Berrios (6-D.Savage).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 10 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 26%

    (7:57) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to JAX 4, Center-48-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (2:11) 16-J.Bailey punts 57 yards to JAX 12, Center-48-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 9 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:52) 9-L.Cooke punts 67 yards to MIA 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 10-T.Hill ran ob at MIA 21 for 11 yards (89-L.Farrell).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 40%

    (11:55) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 0-B.Berrios (23-F.Oluokun).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 69%

    (:03) 39-C.Little 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:40) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to MIA 13, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 18 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:52) 16-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to JAX 34, Center-48-B.Ferguson. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at JAX 37 for 3 yards (80-T.Conner).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 13 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:26) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to MIA 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (15:00) 1-T.Etienne right end to JAX 30 for -2 yards (5-J.Ramsey, 29-K.Fuller).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 87%

    (13:38) 7-J.Sanders 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 24%

    (11:13) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to MIA 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 14 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 92%

    (4:26) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.