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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 24

Miami Dolphins 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 7-J.Sanders 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.57 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model