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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Miami Dolphins
4th & 10 at the 51
Miami Dolphins 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0
What Actually Happened
(7:57) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to JAX 4, Center-48-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.56 EP
-
34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.22 EP
- 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 51, worth -2.47 EP
KICK
-1.33 EP
- 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
- 74% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT
-0.16 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
