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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 18 at the 85

Miami Dolphins 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 16-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to JAX 34, Center-48-B.Ferguson. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at JAX 37 for 3 yards (80-T.Conner).

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.66 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 85, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 43, worth -2.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model