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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 68

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 1-T.Etienne right end to JAX 30 for -2 yards (5-J.Ramsey, 29-K.Fuller).

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.35 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 68, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 26, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model