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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 42

Miami Dolphins 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(11:41) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short middle to 0-B.Berrios (6-D.Savage).

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.99 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model