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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 19

Miami Dolphins 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.67 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 19, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 29, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model