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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 65

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to MIA 13, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.10 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 65, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 23, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model