Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- BUF defense: -0.132 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- BUF offense: +0.086 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- KC defense: -0.090 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
- Josh Allen (BUF): +0.097 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 20
KC
No players on the report.
BUF
No players on the report.
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:11 FG BUF (8:11) 2-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. KC 0 – BUF 3
- Q1 04:40 FG KC (4:40) 7-H.Butker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 3 – BUF 3
- Q2 13:37 TD BUF (13:37) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 3 – BUF 9
- Q2 09:15 FG KC (9:15) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 6 – BUF 10
- Q2 03:38 TD KC (3:38) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 87-T.Kelce for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 12 – BUF 10
- Q2 00:30 TD BUF (:30) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – BUF 16
- Q3 11:55 TD KC (11:55) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 19 – BUF 17
- Q3 03:29 TD BUF (3:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 20 – BUF 23
- Q4 14:24 TD KC (14:24) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 26 – BUF 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 60Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(13:51) 17-J.Allen left tackle to BUF 46 for 6 yards (32-N.Bolton).
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Q1 BUF 4th & 8 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%
(8:11) 2-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
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Q1 KC 4th & 5 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 78%
(4:40) 7-H.Butker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
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Q2 KC 4th & 11 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%
(9:15) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 5 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(6:18) 8-S.Martin punts 40 yards to KC 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 17-R.James to KC 35 for 15 yards (3-D.Hamlin).
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Q4 BUF 4th & 5 at the 70Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(12:57) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 3-D.Hamlin. 3-D.Hamlin left tackle to BUF 32 for 2 yards (54-L.Chenal; 48-C.Christiansen).
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Q4 BUF 4th & 12 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(10:52) 8-S.Martin punts 39 yards to KC 43, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.
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Q4 KC 4th & 9 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 28%
(8:31) 5-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback. Kick into end zone.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 50 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53% p(FG) 26%
(4:52) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir ran ob at KC 40 for 10 yards (20-J.Reid).
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Q4 BUF 4th & 9 at the 26 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 84%
(1:47) 2-T.Bass 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.