4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 26

Buffalo Bills 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 2-T.Bass 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +3.81 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 36, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model