4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 29

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 7-H.Butker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.21 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model