4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(12:57) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 3-D.Hamlin. 3-D.Hamlin left tackle to BUF 32 for 2 yards (54-L.Chenal; 48-C.Christiansen).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
What Happened
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.47 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 70, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 28, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model