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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 9

Buffalo Bills 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 2-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.56 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 9, worth +0.44 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model