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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 50

Buffalo Bills 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(4:52) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir ran ob at KC 40 for 10 yards (20-J.Reid).

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.29 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 50, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model