Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 82

Buffalo Bills 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

(10:52) 8-S.Martin punts 39 yards to KC 43, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.28 EP
66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 82, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model