4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 60

Buffalo Bills 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(13:51) 17-J.Allen left tackle to BUF 46 for 6 yards (32-N.Bolton).

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.71 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 60, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 19, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model