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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Saturday 2024-01-20 · 16:30 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 🌨 Snow Spread 10.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

HOU
30.8%
BAL
69.2%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • BAL on 7 more days rest than HOU
  • BAL defense: -0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.102 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Wind 16 mph
  • QB edge to BAL: Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.136 vs C.J. Stroud (HOU) +0.141 EPA/dropback (BAL starting Lamar Jackson in place of Tyler Huntley)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 19
–
BAL 25
Projected margin: BAL by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 20

HOU

No players on the report.

BAL

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 10
–
BAL 34

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:40 FG BAL (8:40) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. HOU 0 – BAL 3
  • Q1 00:33 FG HOU (:33) 15-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 3 – BAL 3
  • Q2 09:18 TD BAL (9:18) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 15-N.Agholor for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 3 – BAL 9
  • Q2 04:34 TD HOU (4:34) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to HOU 33, Center-69-T.Ott. 82-S.Sims for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 9 – BAL 10
  • Q3 12:10 TD BAL (12:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 10 – BAL 16
  • Q4 14:28 TD BAL (14:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 80-I.Likely for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 10 – BAL 23
  • Q4 06:26 TD BAL (6:26) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 10 – BAL 30
  • Q4 02:00 FG BAL (2:00) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. HOU 10 – BAL 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:40) 11-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to BAL 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 25 for 11 yards (37-D.Ross; 43-N.Hewitt).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 65%

    (8:40) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 2 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (3:28) 11-J.Stout punts 24 yards to BAL 45, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds. PENALTY on HOU-17-K.Boyd, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 45.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 13 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 70%

    (:33) 15-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (7:27) 11-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to BAL 22, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 10 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:34) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to HOU 33, Center-69-T.Ott. 82-S.Sims for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:26) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to HOU 27, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 8 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 76%

    (:37) 15-K.Fairbairn 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 20 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (:15) 11-J.Stout punts 55 yards to HOU 18, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by BAL-13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 14 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 40%

    (6:34) 11-C.Johnston punts 36 yards to BAL 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-37-D.Ross.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 25%

    (2:12) 8-L.Jackson left end to HOU 35 for 14 yards (48-C.Harris).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:44) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to BAL 22, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-17-K.Boyd.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 67
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep middle to 86-D.Schultz [10-A.Maulet].

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 82%

    (4:07) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill right end pushed ob at HOU 21 for 5 yards (24-D.Stingley).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 14 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 84%

    (2:00) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.