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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 34

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.12 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 44, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP