Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 70

Houston Texans 10 – Baltimore Ravens 24

(13:44) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to BAL 22, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-17-K.Boyd.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.65 EP
55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model