Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 20 at the 73

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Houston Texans 10

(:15) 11-J.Stout punts 55 yards to HOU 18, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by BAL-13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +0.86 EP
74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 73, worth -2.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model