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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 67

Houston Texans 3 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(7:27) 11-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to BAL 22, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.57 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 67, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 25, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EP