Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 72

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Houston Texans 10

(3:26) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to HOU 27, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 72, worth -3.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model