Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 67

Houston Texans 10 – Baltimore Ravens 31

(5:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep middle to 86-D.Schultz [10-A.Maulet].

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

What Happened

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.69 EP
58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 67, worth -3.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EP