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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 79

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 11-J.Stout punts 24 yards to BAL 45, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds. PENALTY on HOU-17-K.Boyd, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 45.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.18 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 36, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP