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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2023-12-31 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread 15.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

NE
21.1%
BUF
78.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: -0.175 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.182 vs Bailey Zappe (NE) -0.104 EPA/dropback
  • BUF offense: +0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.117 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 19
–
BUF 28
Projected margin: BUF by 9 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

NE

Kayshon Boutte WR Out Illness
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR Out Ankle
Kyle Dugger S Questionable Illness
Christian Barmore DT Questionable Knee
Myles Bryant CB Questionable Chest
Hunter Henry TE Questionable Knee
Anfernee Jennings LB Questionable Knee
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Knee
Jabrill Peppers S Questionable Hamstring
Matt Slater WR Questionable Hamstring
Shaun Wade CB Questionable Hip

BUF

A.J. Epenesa DE Questionable Rib
DaQuan Jones DT Questionable Pectoral
Justin Shorter WR Questionable Hamstring
Damar Hamlin S Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 21
–
BUF 27

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 15:00 TD NE 2-T.Bass kicks 63 yards from BUF 35 to NE 2. 83-J.Reagor for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – BUF 0
  • Q1 12:10 FG BUF (12:10) 2-T.Bass 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. NE 7 – BUF 3
  • Q1 06:40 TD BUF (6:40) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 7 – BUF 9
  • Q1 02:19 FG BUF (2:19) 2-T.Bass 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. NE 7 – BUF 13
  • Q2 12:47 TD BUF (12:47) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left intended for 83-J.Reagor INTERCEPTED by 31-R.Douglas at NE 40. 31-R.Douglas for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 7 – BUF 19
  • Q2 09:51 TD NE (9:51) 4-B.Zappe scrambles left tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – BUF 20
  • Q3 10:45 TD BUF (10:45) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 14 – BUF 26
  • Q4 11:05 TD NE (11:05) 15-E.Elliott right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 20 – BUF 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:14) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to NE 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 94%

    (12:10) 2-T.Bass 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 5 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (10:32) 17-B.Baringer punts 57 yards to BUF 16, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-D.Harty to BUF 27 for 11 yards (18-M.Slater, 22-C.Davis).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:51) 8-S.Martin punts 48 yards to NE 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 27-M.Bryant ran ob at NE 16 for 2 yards.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (2:19) 2-T.Bass 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (1:01) 17-B.Baringer punts 47 yards to BUF 35, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 42%

    (:13) 8-S.Martin punts 41 yards to NE 5, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 81%

    (1:54) 37-C.Ryland 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (1:16) 8-S.Martin punts 47 yards to NE 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 14 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 60%

    (3:09) 17-B.Baringer punts 27 yards to BUF 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (14:18) 8-S.Martin punts 47 yards to NE 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:52) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to NE 3, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (5:12) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to BUF 44, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-D.Harty ran ob at NE 49 for 7 yards (18-M.Slater).