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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 89

New England Patriots 21 – Buffalo Bills 27

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to BUF 44, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-D.Harty ran ob at NE 49 for 7 yards (18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.35 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 89, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.21 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 46, worth -2.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP