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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 55

Buffalo Bills 20 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 8-S.Martin punts 47 yards to NE 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.39 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 55, worth -2.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP