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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 56

Buffalo Bills 27 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to NE 3, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.42 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 56, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model