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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 29

New England Patriots 14 – Buffalo Bills 20

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 37-C.Ryland 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.31 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model