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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 17

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(12:10) 2-T.Bass 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.29 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 17, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 27, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT +0.23 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model