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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 6

Buffalo Bills 10 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 2-T.Bass 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.22 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 6, worth +0.33 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model