Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 73

New England Patriots 7 – Buffalo Bills 3

(10:32) 17-B.Baringer punts 57 yards to BUF 16, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-D.Harty to BUF 27 for 11 yards (18-M.Slater, 22-C.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.03 EP
57% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 73, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model