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Carolina Panthers

HC Chris Tabor
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JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2023-12-31 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

CAR
32.0%
JAX
68.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.160 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Bryce Young (CAR): -0.241 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • JAX offense: -0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 18
–
JAX 23
Projected margin: JAX by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

CAR

Troy Hill CB Out Concussion
Marquis Haynes LB Questionable Back
Ikem Ekwonu T Questionable Foot
Jaycee Horn CB Questionable Toe
Frankie Luvu LB Questionable Quadricep

JAX

Trevor Lawrence QB Out right Shoulder
Zay Jones WR Questionable Knee
Cam Robinson T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 0
–
JAX 26

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:40 FG JAX (8:40) 10-B.McManus 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. CAR 0 – JAX 3
  • Q2 07:22 FG JAX (7:22) 10-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. CAR 0 – JAX 6
  • Q2 02:48 FG JAX (2:48) 10-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. CAR 0 – JAX 9
  • Q3 12:10 TD JAX (12:10) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne right end for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – JAX 15
  • Q3 03:04 FG JAX (3:04) 10-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. CAR 0 – JAX 19
  • Q4 04:18 TD JAX (4:18) 1-T.Etienne up the middle to CAR 1 for no gain (97-Y.Gross-Matos; 99-S.Tuttle). FUMBLES (97-Y.Gross-Matos), recovered by JAX-77-A.Harrison at CAR 3. Jacksonville challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 1-T.Etienne up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – JAX 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 16 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 94%

    (8:40) 10-B.McManus 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 60%

    (4:26) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 19-A.Thielen pushed ob at JAX 24 for 14 yards (5-A.Cisco) [23-F.Oluokun].

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 7 at the 21
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 90%

    (2:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at JAX 31 for -10 yards (95-R.Robertson-Harris). CAR-9-B.Young was injured during the play.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 26%

    (14:55) 9-L.Cooke punts 37 yards to CAR 14, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 22 for 8 yards (42-A.Wingard).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 18 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:14) 10-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to JAX 38, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 57%

    (10:38) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short right to 17-E.Engram to CAR 35 for 4 yards (40-D.Jones).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

    (7:22) 10-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (2:48) 10-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:56) 10-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to JAX 27, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 13 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to CAR 26, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-I.Smith-Marsette pushed ob at CAR 27 for 1 yard (57-C.Johnson). PENALTY on JAX-57-C.Johnson, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 27.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 24%

    (:29) 10-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (13:01) 10-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to JAX 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-P.Washington to JAX 34 for 15 yards (29-D.Jamison).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (10:36) 10-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to JAX 15, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-P.Washington to JAX 17 for 2 yards (29-D.Jamison).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 94%

    (3:04) 10-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (14:23) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 6-M.Sanders to JAX 48 for 7 yards (37-T.Herndon).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 12 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 29%

    (11:33) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 17-D.Chark to JAX 32 for 18 yards (32-Ty.Campbell).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 29
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 80%

    (10:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 17-D.Chark.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (7:35) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to CAR 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-30-M.Brown.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 85
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:28) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 84-S.Sullivan.