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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 6

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 10-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.16 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 6, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model