Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 76

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to CAR 26, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-I.Smith-Marsette pushed ob at CAR 27 for 1 yard (57-C.Johnson). PENALTY on JAX-57-C.Johnson, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 27.

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.41 EP
69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model