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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 8

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:22) 10-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.16 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP