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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 67

Carolina Panthers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 16

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 10-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to JAX 15, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-P.Washington to JAX 17 for 2 yards (29-D.Jamison).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 25, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP