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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Carolina Panthers
4th & 4 at the 52
Carolina Panthers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9
What Actually Happened
(:29) 10-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.16 EP
Model's Pick
-
46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.76 EP
- 54% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 52, worth -1.77 EP
KICK
-0.64 EP
- 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
- 76% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT
-0.18 EP
What Happened
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.18 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
