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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 16

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:04) 10-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.17 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model