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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 51

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 9-L.Cooke punts 37 yards to CAR 14, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 22 for 8 yards (42-A.Wingard).

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.18 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model