4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
WAS Away

Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
Sunday 2023-12-24 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 36.5

Win Probability

WAS
45.3%
NYJ
54.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.326 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • WAS offense: -0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.132 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.135 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to WAS: Trevor Siemian (NYJ) -0.127 vs Sam Howell (WAS) -0.111 EPA/dropback (NYJ starting Trevor Siemian in place of Zach Wilson)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 20
–
NYJ 22
Projected margin: NYJ by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

WAS

Tyler Larsen C Out Knee
Charles Leno T Out Calf
Brian Robinson RB Out Hamstring
Percy Butler S Questionable Illness

NYJ

Zach Wilson QB Out Concussion
Aaron Rodgers QB Out Achilles
Duane Brown T Questionable Back
John Franklin-Myers DE Questionable Hip
Israel Abanikanda RB Questionable Ankle
Jordan Whitehead S Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 28
–
NYJ 30

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:03 FG NYJ (13:03) 9-G.Zuerlein 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. WAS 0 – NYJ 3
  • Q1 11:29 TD NYJ (11:29) (Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian pass short left to 16-J.Brownlee for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – NYJ 9
  • Q1 09:44 TD NYJ (9:44) 20-Bre.Hall left tackle for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – NYJ 16
  • Q2 09:13 FG NYJ (9:13) 9-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. WAS 0 – NYJ 20
  • Q2 06:48 TD WAS (6:48) 23-C.Rodriguez left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – NYJ 20
  • Q2 01:42 TD NYJ (1:42) 54-B.Turner reported in as eligible. 20-Bre.Hall right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 7 – NYJ 26
  • Q3 03:31 TD WAS (3:31) (Shotgun) 12-J.Brissett pass short middle to 82-L.Thomas for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – NYJ 27
  • Q4 09:36 TD WAS (9:36) (Shotgun) 23-C.Rodriguez up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 20 – NYJ 27
  • Q4 04:55 TD WAS (4:55) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 27 – NYJ 27
  • Q4 00:10 FG NYJ (:10) 9-G.Zuerlein 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. WAS 28 – NYJ 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 98%

    (13:03) 9-G.Zuerlein 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 8 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:28) 5-T.Way punts 36 yards to WAS 47, Center-58-T.Addington, downed by WAS-34-C.Holmes. PENALTY on WAS-34-C.Holmes, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 47.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 46%

    (7:36) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to NYJ 11, Center-58-T.Addington, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 73%

    (2:08) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 83-T.Conklin. 83-T.Conklin up the middle to WAS 34 for no gain (20-J.Martin). WAS-94-D.Payne was injured during the play.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 3 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 44%

    (:05) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to NYJ 6, Center-58-T.Addington, downed by WAS-2-D.Brown.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%

    (9:13) 9-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:58) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to NYJ 17, Center-58-T.Addington, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (1:16) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to NYJ 22, Center-58-T.Addington, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:55) 5-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to WAS 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 10 for -2 yards (19-I.Charles). NYJ-34-J.Hardee was injured during the play. PENALTY on WAS-2-D.Brown, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at WAS 12.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (10:15) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to NYJ 39, Center-58-T.Addington, downed by WAS-2-D.Brown.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (9:19) 5-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:23) 5-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to WAS 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 23 for 14 yards (88-K.Yeboah).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (12:05) 4-C.Samuel right end to WAS 38 for 6 yards (91-J.Franklin-Myers).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:03) 5-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to WAS 17, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 83-J.Crowder.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (3:56) (No Huddle) 14-T.Siemian up the middle to NYJ 36 for 2 yards (96-J.Smith-Williams).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 20 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (2:16) 5-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to WAS 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 83-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 25 for 5 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:50) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to NYJ 24, Center-58-T.Addington. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 33 for 9 yards (32-T.Burgess).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 36 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 68%

    (:10) 9-G.Zuerlein 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.