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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 85

Washington Commanders 7 – New York Jets 27

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to NYJ 39, Center-58-T.Addington, downed by WAS-2-D.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.49 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 85, worth -5.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 43, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP