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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 61

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to NYJ 17, Center-58-T.Addington, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.46 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 61, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 20, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model