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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 73

Washington Commanders 28 – New York Jets 27

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to NYJ 24, Center-58-T.Addington. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 33 for 9 yards (32-T.Burgess).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.14 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 73, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 31, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model