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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 36

New York Jets 27 – Washington Commanders 28

What Actually Happened

(:10) 9-G.Zuerlein 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +1.18 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 36, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.05 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 46, worth -0.12 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model