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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 54

New York Jets 27 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(9:19) 5-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.84 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 54, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP