4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 68

Washington Commanders 14 – New York Jets 27

What Actually Happened

(12:05) 4-C.Samuel right end to WAS 38 for 6 yards (91-J.Franklin-Myers).

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.46 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 68, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 26, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model