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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 67

Washington Commanders 7 – New York Jets 27

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to NYJ 22, Center-58-T.Addington, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.27 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 67, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 25, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model